Joshua Linnehan
The 2024 NFL Season is projected to be one of the weirdest seasons in NFL history. The main cause is due to the steady decrease in offensive production. Through Week 4 of this season, NFL teams have averaged 21.6 points per game, marking the fourth consecutive season where the scoring average has decreased, and the fewest points per game total since 2009.
The current per-game passing yard average is currently at 202.8, which would be the lowest passing yards per game number since 2003, where the league average was 200.4. Quarterbacks are also throwing the ball less. The league wide number of pass attempts is at 31.3, the lowest since 1992, which was 29.9.
There are many reasons for this decline in offense, but the craziest part is that one player in particular has flourished in this time of poor QB play that no one expected.
That player is Sam Darnold, the current starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings, and former QB for the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and the San Francisco 49ers. Drafted #3 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, Darnold hadn’t lived up to his sky high expectations prior to this season.
He was the main starter for the Jets from 2018-2020, and he proved once more that New York is where QBs go to die. His most notable moment in the green and white is when he was mic’d up during a Monday Night Football game against their archrival, the New England Patriots, in 2019. Darnold said he was “seeing ghosts” on the football field while his team was down 24-0 in the first half. Naturally, he turned into a meme overnight.
Heading into the 2021 season, Darnold was traded to the Carolina Panthers where he was the starter throughout most of the season. The next season, he was the backup for Carolina behind Baker Mayfield, and last season he was the backup quarterback for the 49ers after signing a one-year deal.
Throughout his first six seasons in the league, Darnold started 56 games, with a record of 21-35. He threw for 12,064 yards, with 63 touchdowns to 56 interceptions. Those numbers aren’t pretty, but he still had a shot at a starting job with his 4th NFL team this season, in Minnesota. He was originally competing with the team’s 10th overall draft pick in quarterback, J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy would suffer a season-ending torn meniscus in the preseason, giving the starting job to Darnold.
Since then, Darnold has experienced his best stretch of games in his NFL career, leading Minnesota to a 4-0 record to open up the season. They are the only undefeated team currently, besides the defending back-to-back champion Kansas City Chiefs. In these four games, Darnold leads the league in touchdown passes with 11, while throwing for 932 yards, completing 68.9% of his passes, and also leading the NFL in passer rating with a 118.9.
To further show his dominance in 2024, Jason Harmon on X, or @_jason_777, created a scatter plot graph to show quarterback efficiency amongst all starting quarterbacks this season. On the bottom, the statistic is completion percentage above expected or CPOE. On the side, the statistic is EPA per play (passes, rushes, and penalties). The closer the quarterback is to the upper right hand corner, the better, and Darnold seems to be in a league of his own.
He’s been the best quarterback on the best team record-wise this season, which has given the former USC legend MVP consideration. As expected, Darnold’s MVP odds from BetMGM to open up the season were incredibly low at 200-1. Those odds have dropped to 11-1, putting him in a tie for fourth place with the reigning Rookie of the Year, C.J. Stroud. He’s only behind the defending MVP in Lamar Jackson (+1000), Josh Allen (+275), and the current leader which is of course, Patrick Mahomes (+240).
The question is: Can Sam Darnold actually continue this elite performance throughout the whole season? Well, when we go back to 2021, his first season with Carolina, Darnold had a similar hot start that had people buzzing.
In his first three games of that season, Darnold came out swinging with a 3-0 record, throwing for 888 yards, with three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns. Fans immediately speculated that Darnold wasn’t the problem in New York, but it was the system that failed him. That theory would quickly be debunked, as Darnold’s next six starts were abysmal. He had just four touchdowns to 10 interceptions, and the Panthers went 1-5 in this stretch.
Admittedly, the four game heater that Darnold is currently on is even better compared to his hot start in Carolina, but it can have the same ending. Darnold may have finally found his home in Minnesota, a team that has arguably the best receiver in the NFL, Justin Jefferson, and a young, offensively-minded head coach in Kevin O’Connell. It could come crashing down like it did in 2021, only time will tell. In the meantime, it’s great to see a former top draft pick get his flowers for at least a bit of time in this league.
In potentially the weakest offensive season in over a decade, Sam Darnold and the Vikings have thrived. Their 29 points per game is 4th best in the league, behind the Commanders, Bills, and Saints. The hype is real in Minnesota, and don’t be shocked if Darnold gets MVP chants in London this Sunday.
