The Buffalo Bills have been going through a hurricane of a season, from blowing week one against the Jets to blowing the doors off the Dolphins to open up the month of October. As they sit at 5-5, with a 1-3 record in their last four games, what went wrong for the Buffalo Bills?
It’s a combination of a deteriorating roster, trying to adapt to a world without Matt Milano at linebacker, and Von Miller struggling to return to form after his injury. An offensive line that is average at best, and lacking real receiving threats outside of Stefon Diggs are all factors in the team’s offensive struggles. The one thing that cannot be mistaken is, this is not Josh Allen’s fault.
When looking at the stats at face value, it’s easy to point to Allen and say he has to do a better job taking care of the football. However, he’s been taking the best care of the ball of his career. Sure, his 11 interceptions, including an active streak of throwing a pick in six consecutive games look troublesome, but the more advanced numbers show that Allen has been incredibly unlucky. His turnover worthy play percentage, a metric that measures what a play should be a turnover/is worthy of being one, sits at 2.4 percent. This is the lowest of his career by a full percentage point! 2020 and 2021 are tied for second best at 3.4 percent. For reference, Allen’s 2.4 percent is equal to C.J. Stroud’s turnover worthy play percentage and is tied for the ninth lowest in the league. Some notable quarterbacks with higher turnover worthy play percentages are Tua Tagovailoa at 2.6, Lamar Jackson at 3.0, Patrick Mahomes at 3.3 percent, and Justin Herbert at 3.3 percent.
Allen also has not been shy to make some big plays, with his big time throw percentage coming in at 5.4 percent, right in line with his career average. This comes in at the eighth highest in the league, ranking above Trevor Lawrence’s 5.3 percent, Lamar Jackson’s 4.7 percent, C.J. Stroud’s 4.4, Joe Burrow’s 4.4, and Patrick Mahomes’ 4.0 percent.
On an individual level, Allen has been every bit as incredible as he has been over the past few seasons. The Bills are catching the bad end of variants which resulted in firing their offensive coordinator in an effort to get a spark. It’s not Josh Allen’s fault that they had 12 men on the field when Denver missed their final field goal attempt, or that Mac Jones led a game-winning drive to perfection. Allen is not the problem, he’s hardly even a problem.