Ryan Laws
The NBA regular season is officially in the books, and the playoffs are set to begin later this week; however, 4 playoff spots are still up for grabs via the play-in tournament. The number 7 and number 8 seeds in each conference will be earned between Tuesday and Friday. Let’s meet the matchups and my opinions on them.
#10 Miami Heat vs. #9 Charlotte Hornets, Tuesday at 7:30 EST
The first game in the East will be win-or-go-home, with the winner advancing to Friday to try to win again and earn the 8 seed against the loser of the 7th-place vs. 8th-place game.
The Hornets finished the season with a 44-38 record, but more notably, since March, they are 14-7, and the further back you go to the beginning of this calendar year, the better their record is. The young trio of Brandon Miller, LaMelo Ball, and rookie Kon Knueppel has thrived offensively for Charlotte, and despite being the 9th-place team, they have been playing a lot better than that placement and could easily run the table for the 8 seed.
The Heat find themselves in the play-in tournament for the 4th season in a row, but as the 10th-place team for the first time. Overall, they finished 43-39, but they have been playing just above .500 basketball over the past month, including a 7-game win streak immediately followed by a 5-game losing streak. First-time All-Star Norman Powell led the Heat in scoring this season, averaging 21.7 points per game.
My prediction: This game will be decided by Charlotte’s shooting; if they go cold, Miami may be able to go on yet another play-in run to the playoffs. The Heat won the season series 3-1, but the Hornets won the finale by 30 points. With how well Charlotte’s been playing, I think they survive and advance to the Friday game, eliminating the Heat.
#8 Portland Trail Blazers vs. #7 Phoenix Suns, Tuesday at 10:00 EST
The first game in the West will be a double-elimination matchup between these two teams, and the winner gets to play the dominant Spurs. It sounds like a treat.
The Suns have seemingly been stuck in 7th place all season, but they have exceeded expectations with a new-look roster under Jordan Ott, shipping away Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal while gaining Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green. They wrapped up the year with a 45-37 record, but the past month has been up and down. Phoenix won the season series against the Blazers 2-1, but dropped the last game and managed only 77 points in the effort.
Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers have probably been the least talked-about success story this season. With interim head coach Tiago Splitter likely dropping that placeholder tag this offseason, the group has a chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2021. Led by first-time All-Star and most improved player candidate Deni Avdija, who improved his scoring by about 8 points in his second season in Rip City.
My prediction: I really like how Portland has been playing as of late; it feels like they are getting hot at the right time, while Phoenix has remained stagnant. The Blazers’ win on Friday against the Clippers got them in this spot to play for the 7 seed, and I think the momentum will push them past Booker and company.
#8 Orlando Magic vs #7 Philadelphia 76ers, Wednesday at 7:30 EST
This game will be played for the 7-seed in the East, where the winner will face the Celtics on Sunday, and, in my scenario, the loser will play the Hornets on Friday for the 8-seed.
Orlando has been the biggest letdown by far for me this season, with a record of 45-37. On opening night, I was confident that they would be AT WORST a 4 seed. I picked them as a shoo-in to make the East Finals against Cleveland/New York, but a lot has changed since then. Yes, injuries happen, but I have grown pretty impatient with playing that card with this group. My belief in them has faded over the months. Being capped off with a brutal loss to the Celtics’ “Stay Ready lineup” in the season finale, which bumped them down to the 8 seed, and traveling to Philadelphia on Wednesday.
The 76ers have been fairly disappointing this year as well, in part due to their 2 stars, Joel Embiid and Paul George, missing time consistently, which has left Philly at 45-37. Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe have carried the weight for the 76ers to this point, and they even won the season series against Orlando 2-1.
My prediction: As crazy as I may sound, I think Orlando is going to come out with a fire under them for Sunday, and head coach Jamahl Mosley could be coaching for his job. Orlando has the better lineup on paper than the 76ers for this matchup, but they have fooled me all season. I am ready to be hurt again. I pick Orlando to win the 7 seed.
#10 Golden State Warriors vs. #9 Los Angeles Clippers, Wednesday at 10:30 EST
The last play-in game matchup that we know for sure is between these two teams, and in my scenario, the winner of this game will play Phoenix for the 8 seed and play Oklahoma City in the first round.
The Warriors have a bit of a different lineup than they intended at the start of the season. No Jimmy Butler or Jonathan Kuminga, and Steph Curry on a minutes restriction—not ideal. Golden State finished with a record of 37-45 and lost 7 of its last 8 games. The only thing people are banking on from the Warriors is a Steph Curry magical run to the 8 seed.
The Clippers were able to survive a brutal start to this season, opening up with a 6-21 record, losing Bradley Beal, trading James Harden, and sending Chris Paul home. Since then, they are 36-19, and it looks like Kawhi Leonard will make an All-NBA team again, proving he still has something left in the tank.
My prediction: Again, barring any Curry magic, the Clippers should be able to handle the Warriors pretty decisively here; they won the season series 3-1, including 2 victories down the stretch against them. It felt like, at times in the West playoff race, that the Warriors were stuck as the 10th-place team because the distance between them and the Pelicans would not be likely to be made up for, but now they will join New Orleans at home.
#9 Charlotte Hornets vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers, Friday at 7:30 EST
This game is dependent on my previous two outcomes being correct; the winner will win the 8 seed and play Detroit in the opening round.
My prediction: This is a real mind vs. gut pick for me. I think I am one of many people who would love to see this Hornets team make the postseason and officially be considered as “ahead of schedule.” But it’s really difficult for me to pick against the 76ers losing back-to-back home games and falling out of the playoffs entirely, even without Embiid. I expect big games from VJ and Tyrese, and maybe a little resurgence from Playoff P?
#9 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #7 Phoenix Suns, Friday at 10:00 EST
This game is also dependent on the previous West outcomes being correct; the winner will earn the 8 seed and play Oklahoma City in the first round.
My prediction: Now, similar thinking here as to picking against Philadelphia, it is tough to choose the Suns to lose 2 games in a row at home and miss out, but I think it might just happen. The teams split the season series at 2-2, but when the Clippers won, it was by 20 points or more. They also haven’t seen each other since February. My gut’s telling me to choose Kawhi, so I’m taking the Clippers to lock up the 8 seed.
After this final game on Friday night, the playoffs officially begin on Saturday and Sunday, and we will see who can be crowned 2026 NBA champions. There’s even an outside chance one of these play-in teams could make a run…
